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补贴有望加速德国市场增 长率

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令人期待已久的德国光伏储能系统补贴将于 5 月 1 日推出。IHS 预测,该项补贴将推动德国住宅市场的快速增长,今后 5 年储能系统安装规模将达到近 2GW。

"由于目前国内电价远远超出住宅光伏系统上网电价补贴费率,为了将住宅光伏系统的投资回报最大化,(民众)增加住宅光伏系统自发自用量的意愿尤为强烈"ï¼ŒIHS 光伏分析师 Sam Wilkinson 表示:"因此,在公布储能补贴之前,德国 2012 年光伏储能系统安装量已达 8MW。备受期许的储能补贴的推出将迅速推动储能系统的增长,相比那些没有安装储能系统的光伏项目,拥有储能系统的光伏电站的使用度电成本将更低。"

虽然储能补贴费率还未确认,但以光伏系统平均使用 20 年计,目前提出的补贴计划将使德国带储能的光伏系统成本比不带储能的发电系统低 10%。此前,因为储能系统成本过高而大大抵消了自发自用所节省下的电力成本,所以不配备储能的光伏系统可带来更加诱人的回报率。

其他国家将再次跟随德国的脚步吗?
该报告发现,虽然预计德国仍将是最大的光伏储能市场之一,但储能系统也将在其他多个地区得到应用。德国曾经是光伏系统 FIT 补贴的引领者,日本则有可能进一步推动光伏市场的发展。

IHS 预计,作为第一个推行光伏储能补贴的国家,德国的计划如果能成功实施的话,其他国家将相继效仿。

"我们预计其他国家将效仿德国推出类似的补贴计划,尤其是那些积极推动自发自用、具备稳定电网的国家,从而推动光伏储能系统的应用"ï¼ŒWilkinson 说:"即使是没有补贴,在某些特定国家,储能仍是与住宅光伏发电系统紧密相关的一个具有吸引力的选择方案。以英国为例,预计到 2014 年,随着蓄电池价格的大幅下滑,光伏储能系统成本将更具竞争力,而英国光伏储能系统市场也将开始快速增长。"

此外,储能还将应用于大规模光伏电站,从而提高光伏发电并网量,增加业主投资回报率,并满足一些国家对光伏等间歇性发电系统输出稳定性日益严格的并网要求。
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